Social Business Journal

Social Business Journal

An Empirical Analysis of the Duality of Social Resilience in Wartime: The Case of Iran (2025–2026)

Document Type : Original Article

Author
Ahmad Naderi
Department of Reclamation of arid and mountainous regions Engineering, Faculty of Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
10.22059/jsbu.2026.415667.1116
Abstract
Objective: This study aims to identify and explain the pattern of social resilience in Iran during the recent war (2025–2026) and examine changes across its social, communicative, infrastructural, and institutional dimensions. It specifically investigates the “dual resilience” hypothesis, suggesting that community-based resilience may strengthen during wartime while certain infrastructural and institutional capacities may weaken or remain unchanged.
Method: A quantitative before-and-after comparative design was employed. Data were collected using a 28-item checklist developed from Biggs et al.’s seven-part operational framework: diversity and redundancy, connectivity, slow variables and feedback, complex adaptive systems thinking, learning, participation, and polycentric governance. A five-member panel of crisis management experts assessed the indicators at two time points, before and after the war. Given the paired structure of the observations and the limited sample size, the non-parametric Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to examine changes between the two periods.
Results: The results reveal a dual pattern of social resilience. Participation showed the largest statistically significant increase, indicating stronger social capital, solidarity, and voluntary public engagement. Connectivity also increased significantly. In contrast, diversity and redundancy experienced a noticeable but statistically non-significant decline. The principles of slow variables and feedback, complex adaptive systems thinking, learning, and polycentric governance also showed no statistically significant changes, although some individual indicators, particularly social cohesion, demonstrated relative improvement.
Conclusions: The findings support the dual resilience hypothesis. Wartime conditions strengthened resilience “from below,” particularly through participation, social capital, and connectivity, while resilience “from above,” associated with infrastructure, institutional diversity, governance, and organizational learning, remained comparatively fragile. The findings therefore highlight the importance of strengthening both community-based capacities and institutional adaptability as complementary components of social resilience in wartime contexts.
Keywords
Crisis management, Iran’s social system, Social capital, Social resilience, War
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Social Business Journal
Volume 3, Issue 3
Summer 2026
Pages 125-139