Investigating the Impact of Climate Fluctuations on the Agricultural Sector Business in MENA Region Countries

Business in the agricultural sector is one of the fundamental and significant challenges faced by societies in terms of economic and social planning, and it is strongly dependent on climatic parameters and their changes. Climate serves as a primary determining factor which specifies the time, place, and efficiency of agricultural production; therefore, climatic changes can have profound impacts on this sector of the economy. The aim of this study is to examine the impact of climatic fluctuations on business in the agricultural sector in the MENA region (Middle East and North Africa) using the Panel-GLS data analysis method over the years 2000 to 2022. Considering that the goal is the simultaneous analysis of cross-sectional data (different countries of the MENA region) and time, the panel data analysis method (Panel-GLS) has been used in this study. According to the results obtained, climatic fluctuations showed a negative and significant impact on business in the agricultural sector. These negative impacts can manifest as reduced production, increased costs, and consequently decreased profitability for farmers and investors in this field. Furthermore, important indicators such as food production, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), grain yield per hectare, and the area of agricultural land have a positive and significant impact on business in the agricultural sector. In other words, the better these indicators are positioned, the better the agricultural business will be, allowing for greater prosperity. The results of current research can serve as a valuable resource for strategy and perspective development of the Ministry of Mines and Industry, the Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, and the specialized working group on health and food security.